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U.S. consumers hold on to their cash
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The Globe and Mail- U.S. consumer spending dropped in June for the first time in nearly two years as incomes barely rose, suggesting economic growth could remain subdued in the third quarter.
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday consumer spending slipped 0.2 per cent, the first drop since September 2009, after edging up 0.1 per cent in May.
Economists had expected spending, which accounts for about 70 per cent of U.S. economic activity, to rise 0.2 per cent.
When adjusted for inflation, spending was flat in June after easing 0.1 per cent the prior month.
“The growth potential for the economy has slowed significantly,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, a U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York.
U.S. Treasury prices rose on the weak report, while the dollar pared gains against the euro.
Consumer spending is being hampered by a 9.2 per cent unemployment rate and the labour market’s health could very well determine how fast the economy recovers from its first-half dismal performance.
Budget cuts in Washington could also hamper the economy’s recovery, although most of the fiscal restraint imposed by a plan the Senate will vote on Tuesday won’t take hold for years.
June’s spending data already has been reflected in the second-quarter Gross Domestic Product report released last Friday, which showed the economy grew at an anemic 1.3 per cent annual rate in the April-June quarter.
Spending barely grew in the second quarter, inching up at an annual rate of only 0.1 per cent – the weakest pace since the end of the 2007-09 recession. Spending increased at a 2.1 per cent rate in the first quarter.
The decline in spending in June came even as gasoline prices retreated from their peak just above $4 a gallon in early May and suggested the much-anticipated bounce back in growth in the third quarter would lack vigour.
The weak spending in June also reflected tepid income growth after employment growth ground to a near halt in June, with non-farm payrolls rising only 18,000.
Non-farm payrolls are expected to have increased 85,000 in July, according to a Reuters survey. The government will release its closely followed employment report for July on Friday.
Incomes ticked up 0.1 per cent in June, the smallest increase since November, after rising 0.2 per cent in May.
Disposable income edged up 0.1 per cent, also the smallest increase since November. But when adjusted for inflation, disposable income rose 0.3 per cent.
With real disposable income outpacing spending, savings rose to $620.6-billion from $581.7-billion in May.
But there was some silver lining in the general weak report, which showed overall inflation pressures subsiding as gasoline prices decline a bit.
The personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index fell 0.2 per cent, the first decline since June, after rising 0.2 per cent in May. Compared to June last year, the index was up 2.6 per cent after increasing 2.6 per cent in May.
But the core PCE index – excluding food and energy – rose 0.1 per cent after gaining 0.2 per cent the prior month.
The core index, which is closely watched by Federal Reserve officials, increased 1.3 per cent in the 12 months through June. The index rose 1.3 per cent year-on-year in May and the Fed would like to see it close to 2 per cent.
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